COUNTRY RISK FORECASTING SOLUTIONS

Helping investors, lenders, and corporates navigate political, security, and macroeconomic uncertainty and leverage opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Experience-led analysis, delivered by senior researchers, analysts, and consultants

Global human intelligence network, providing trusted in-country insight where it matters most

Technology-enabled risk intelligence, combining real-time monitoring with human oversight

Proprietary country risk methodology, ensuring consistency, comparability, and forward-looking forecasts

Specialist focus on frontier and emerging markets, informed by decades of collective regional experience

Why organisations choose Pangea-Risk.

We help organisations navigate complex markets with clear, forward-looking intelligence and practical advisory support so our clients can anticipate risks and move confidently into new opportunities.

Our Solutions

Insight is our specialist country risk platform for forecasting risks and opportunities in emerging and frontier markets. Powered by our proprietary methodology and enhanced by AI technology, Insight provides clear, comparable intelligence to help organisations anticipate disruptions and plan confidently.

Members gain access to:

  • Country outlooks offering one-year political, economic, and security forecasts
  • Risk ratings updated on a live basis and reviewed quarterly across global markets
  • Daily Insight briefings on developments in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia
  • Media Monitor tracking real-time, high-priority global developments

Insight delivers timely, data-driven analysis that supports strategic decisions and reveals emerging opportunities.

Explore Insight

Advisory offers tailored intelligence and consulting support to help organisations understand risks, build resilience, and operate confidently in complex markets. Combining rigorous forecasting, regional expertise, and human source networks, we deliver tailored outputs shaped around client needs.

Our services include:

  • Standalone assessments and briefings across political, economic, security, and sector risks
  • Tailored intelligence reporting monitoring developments affecting operations
  • Specialised consulting to build custom methodologies and strengthen intelligence and risk assessment capabilities

Advisory provides clear, method-driven guidance that helps clients navigate uncertainty, assess exposure, and unlock opportunities in emerging and frontier markets.

Explore Advisory

Pangea-Risk Free-To-Read Insight Briefings

Download a complimentary PDF copy of our recent analysis picks

MONTHLY INSIGHT - FEBRUARY 2026

Wed, 25 February 2026

In February, our team participated in a variety of high-level industry events for the mining, banking, and insurance sectors from Cape Town to Dubai and London. The message we received is clear - ongoing global economic and political uncertainty is choking trade and holding back investment flows. Risk mitigation through country risk forecasting is increasingly integrated into C-Suite decision-making, particularly in the context of emerging and frontier markets. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a thought leadership report on the capital constraints for the development finance industry and publish a webinar on reassessing mining sector risk.


GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE IN 2026: CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRAINT

Wed, 25 February 2026

As traditional aid budgets contract and geopolitical fault lines deepen, the architecture of global development finance is undergoing structural change. Official Development Assistance is declining sharply, while Development Finance Institutions and Multilateral Development Banks are being asked to mobilise greater volumes of private capital with fewer concessional resources. This joint Pangea-Risk and Texel report examines the forces reshaping how capital reaches vulnerable economies, and what will be required to deploy risk-adjusted investment at scale in 2026 and beyond.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - JANUARY 2026

Wed, 28 January 2026

At the start of the New Year, we proudly launched Insight 2026 - Pangea-Risk’s flagship annual publication that identifies opportunities for trade and investment across emerging and frontier markets in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. We also started the year with a fresh look as we revamped our website and expanded Insight platform coverage to include Ukraine and Russia. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock Insight 2026, to help lenders, insurers, investors, and operators identify some compelling trade and investment opportunities for the coming year. You can also watch our team’s latest webinar on the prospects of a peace deal in Ukraine.


INSIGHT 2026

Mon, 19 January 2026

Insight 2026 examines where opportunity is returning across emerging and frontier markets, and why outcomes will remain uneven. Drawing on political, macroeconomic, and geopolitical analysis, the report maps the infrastructure corridors, capital flows, and managed conflict de-escalation shaping trade and investment in the year ahead. With expanded coverage across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, Insight 2026 provides evidence-based intelligence to help lenders, insurers, investors, and operators identify durable opportunities, anticipate risk, and plan confidently in a fragmented global economy.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2025

Wed, 17 December 2025

As we approach the end of 2025, I am particularly proud of some of the milestones achieved at Pangea-Risk this year - from extending Insight platform country coverage to Asia, to expanding our Advisory bespoke consulting practice, and introducing artificial intelligence as the first step in our automated technology journey. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a feature on this year’s primary developments for emerging & frontier markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, and assess the accuracy of our key country risk forecasts. You can also watch our team’s latest webinar on Gulf trade with the Global South.


INSIGHT 2025 IN REVIEW

Wed, 10 December 2025

2025 has been defined by sharp trade disruption, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and unexpected political shocks across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Yet, despite persistent global uncertainty, several emerging markets strengthened their strategic importance through Gulf investment, South–South finance, and new regional systems over the course of the year. In our 2025 review, Pangea-Risk highlights where our forecasts held, where volatility exceeded expectations, and what this means for 2026.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - NOVEMBER 2025

Wed, 26 November 2025

Pangea-Risk and Standard Bank’s Energy and Infrastructure Finance team have collaborated this year to introduce a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. We have jointly begun developing a data-driven methodology assessing opportunities and risks in high-risk markets through sovereign, subnational, and sectoral analysis. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a feature on Pangea-Risk’s collaboration with Standard Bank to develop a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. Take a look at the webinar for a summary of the key points.


REIMAGINING PROJECT & RESOURCES RISK

Thu, 13 November 2025

Pangea-Risk and Standard Bank introduce a practical new framework to assess project risk for resource development in Africa. Country risk ratings are a reliable compass for standardised risk assessments at the sovereign level. Yet, a sovereign-level score cannot distinguish a stable project enclave from a volatile hinterland, or a well-regulated industry from a nascent one. For export credit agencies, private insurers, and commercial banks, this gap translates into missed opportunities or unexpected losses, particularly in the complex African context. Pangea-Risk, in partnership with Standard Bank’s Energy and Infrastructure Finance team, have begun the development of a new Localised Opportunity and Risk Evaluation platform to turn risks into opportunities. This methodology delivers a concise and complementary lens that examines how location, sector, and resource dynamics reshape real exposure beyond the sovereign baseline.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2025

Wed, 29 October 2025

Amid intensifying geopolitical volatility, trade is no longer a neutral engine of growth but a theatre of strategic influence. States are weaponising trade corridors and logistics assets not simply to move goods, but to project power, enforce regulatory preferences, and test new models of economic sovereignty. This shift marks a decisive break from the old logic of globalisation. Supply chains are now determined as much by alignment and access to political capital as by price or efficiency. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the weaponisation of trade in the context of emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. This analysis is accompanied by a new webinar on private credit opportunities across the Global South.


SPECIAL REPORT: STRATEGIC RIVALRIES AND SECURITY SHOCKS REDEFINE THE GLOBAL TRADE LANDSCAPE

Wed, 22 October 2025

Escalating strategic competition in Asia is destabilising trade routes, with security confrontations and foreign policy realignments deepening operational uncertainty. In the Middle East, maritime insecurity and rival logistics strategies are driving risks across critical shipping and energy corridors. Meanwhile, Africa’s shifting trade geography, shaped by changing external partnerships and contested regional integration, is exposing exporters to legal, regulatory, and political volatility. Together, these developments illustrate how state-driven foreign policy strategies are compounding exposure across interconnected corridors, redefining risk for insurers and commercial operators alike.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - SEPTEMBER 2025

Wed, 01 October 2025

Generation Z protests have accelerated across South and Southeast Asia, as well as parts of Africa and even Türkiye, over the past month. In September, Pangea-Risk analysis focused on both the youth dividend of fast-growing emerging markets, notably in Southeast Asia, but also the threat of youth political mobilisation. Socio-economic frustrations and political activism are driving fresh challenges to governments. The latter trend will undoubtedly impact several upcoming African elections in October. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a special report on the threat posed by Gen Z mobilisations to political stability and commercial operations. We also publish a new recorded webinar where our analysis team discusses the interconnections between Asian, African, and the Middle East’s trade and investment flows.


SPECIAL REPORT: RISING YOUTH MOBILISATION AND THE CHALLENGE TO POLITICAL STABILITY GLOBALLY

Wed, 17 September 2025

Youth-led protests are reshaping politics and impacting economies across emerging markets, with unrest spreading from Nepal to Kenya, Indonesia, to Mongolia. Driven by inequality, corruption, and exclusion, these movements mobilise rapidly through digital platforms and resist blunt state repression. As demographic shifts intensify, recurring protest cycles are set to become structural features of politics, testing resilience and demanding forward-looking strategies from policymakers and businesses alike.


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