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PANGEA-RISK ANIMATED INFOGRAPHICS

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SOUTH AFRICA: MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWN COULD CURTAIL DEVELOPMENT AGENDA

24 January 2025

SOMALIA: DISPUTE WITH ETHIOPIA SEES TEMPORARY RELIEF

16 January 2025

THE YEAR IN 2025

07 January 2025

UGANDA: HYDROCARBONS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

12 December 2024

LOOKING BACK AT AFRICAN ELECTIONS IN 2024

04 December 2024

AFRICA’S NEXT DEBT CRISIS?

17 October 2024

TOWARDS A NEW WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

03 October 2024

AFRICAN DEBT BINGE HITS PAUSE BUTTON

31 July 2024

WESTERN INVESTORS SEEK ANGOLAN OPPORTUNITY

09 July 2024

COMMON FRAMEWORK LESSONS LEARNED

12 June 2024

WHAT NEXT FOR SOUTH AFRICA’S MINING SECTOR?

06 June 2024

IMPACT OF EAST AFRICA’S FLOODS

08 May 2024

PANGEA-RISK FREE-TO-READ INSIGHT BRIEFINGS

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MONTHLY INSIGHT - JANUARY 2025

Thu, 30 January 2025

‘Uncertain’, ‘unprecedented’, and the ‘unknown’ are vague terms too often applied to forward-looking analysis, especially at the start of the year. Analysts apply such obscure words to avoid making a measurable forecast that may eventually prove inaccurate. By shifting to an indicator-based forecasting methodology, Pangea-Risk seeks to avoid ‘lazy forecasting’ practices and instead we depend on local source intelligence and forward-looking risk analytics to make actionable, commercially-relevant, and - hopefully often - accurate forecasts. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock our Year in 2025 special report that makes several clear and actionable forecasts for the coming year. This month, we also launch the Insight platform’s new South Asia coverage and we unlock our first briefing on Bangladesh.


PANGEA-RISK ADVISORY: COUNTRY RISK SOLUTIONS TO FUTURE-PROOF BUSINESS OPERATIONS IN 2025

Tue, 14 January 2025

In 2025, a proactive approach to country risk management will be crucial to navigating global disruptions, safeguarding assets, and seizing opportunities. The country risk climate globally is increasingly marked by volatility, with growing political risks shaped by geopolitical rivalries, shifts in global trade, and intensifying conflicts in several parts of the world. Within this context, businesses will need to future-proof their operations by embedding country risk management into their business strategies.In the first of our new Pangea-Risk Advisory Special Reports, Head of Advisory Gabrielle Reid explains some of the key drivers of country risk over the coming year and outlines strategies for businesses to manage and mitigate threats.


BANGLADESH: ELECTIONS TIMELINE FAILS TO EASE POLITICAL TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

Tue, 07 January 2025

The interim government’s announcement regarding the election timeline has failed to alleviate political tensions, with some major stakeholders continuing to demand an earlier vote. In addition to dealing with domestic political challenges, the interim government is grappling with growing disputes with neighbouring India, which will likely reject its recent request to extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. On the economic front, the government has sought increased international financial assistance. Yet, systemic issues such as corruption, regulatory uncertainty and disruptions in the garment sector continue to deter foreign investment.


THE YEAR IN 2025: FIVE BIG TRENDS IN GLOBAL SOUTH COUNTRY RISK IN THE COMING YEAR

Tue, 07 January 2025

Global geopolitical fragmentation will create fresh trade and investment opportunities for Emerging and Frontier Markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East in 2025. Enhanced use of local currency trade, increased investment into logistics and power infrastructure from cash-flush Gulf states, and improved Global South collaboration will boost economic growth and build resilience to external shocks. Nevertheless, a stubbornly high cost of living and youth unemployment, aggravated by extreme weather and supply chain disruption, are expected to drive uncertainty into elections and incentivise resource nationalism.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - DECEMBER 2024

Fri, 20 December 2024

Few country risk analysts foresaw this month’s fall of the long entrenched Assad regime in Syria, or at least not the rapid progression of events after rebels seized the city of Aleppo on 4 December. And yet the indicators were there as opposition groups coordinated the offensive after a year of strategic planning. Similarly, human source intelligence and local knowledge provided the clues that pointed towards opposition victories in many African elections this year. For this reason, Pangea-Risk has moved towards an indicator-based methodology that underpins all our country risk assessments. In this final Monthly Insight of the year, we unlock our country risk vulnerability model projecting the impact of elections in 2025, as well as our latest analysis on Syria, as the country enters a new era that will have a profound impact on the wider region.


KEY ELECTIONS TO WATCH IN 2025

Wed, 18 December 2024

The 2025 election cycle across Frontier & Emerging Markets highlights diverse country risks and instability factors. Leadership uncertainties dominate in Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, where instability risks are driven by the absence of a clear succession plan and term extension ambitions by incumbents. Power consolidation will shape elections in Egypt, Georgia, and Iraq, where entrenched ruling factions depend on political repression. Socioeconomic grievances amplify unrest risks in Malawi, while a delay in Niger’s transition to civilian rule poses risks for broader insecurity. Meanwhile, upcoming elections in Gabon and Tanzania offer a potential opportunity for current leaders to entrench their power. We pick the top ten elections to watch in 2025.


SYRIA: ASSAD’S SUDDEN COLLAPSE COULD FUEL POWER STRUGGLES AND REGIONAL SCRAMBLE FOR INFLUENCE

Wed, 11 December 2024

The rapid collapse of President Bashar Al Assad’s rule offers an opportunity for democratic transition but could also fuel further fragmentation and internal power struggles. Parallel to these domestic struggles, the international community has initiated a disconnected transition process, with the United Nations pursuing a formal framework. At the same time, rebel forces unilaterally implement their own transition in Damascus. Regionally, Iran’s diminished presence and the severance of its supply lines to Hezbollah signal a weakening of its influence as Türkiye capitalises on the shifting dynamics to expand its strategic foothold.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - NOVEMBER 2024

Wed, 27 November 2024

The outcome of the US presidential election earlier this month triggered a shockwave across Emerging and Frontier Markets. In Africa, a second Donald Trump presidency will affect trade, development financing, and security cooperation. However, the impact will not be uniform across the continent, and some countries could benefit from a more transactional approach. For the Middle East, central to US policy would be renewed efforts to broker Saudi-Israel normalisation, which would be complicated by regional rivalries and Saudi Arabia’s balancing of interests with China and Russia. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock two popular features on the implications of the incoming US administration on both Africa and the Middle East. Some of our most read analysis this month includes briefings on debt restructuring in Republic of Congo and debt sustainability in Angola.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP PRESIDENCY IMPLICATIONS FOR AFRICA

Fri, 08 November 2024

A second Donald Trump presidency in the US will likely affect trade, development financing, and security cooperation in Africa. However, the impact will not be uniform across the continent. African countries that largely steer clear of challenging US power on the global stage are expected to continue to benefit from engagement with the newly elected administration. Others that have positioned themselves closer to the US’s perceived global rivals or do not offer immediate commercial benefits may fall lower on the US’s list of priorities.


SPECIAL REPORT: TRUMP PRESIDENCY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

Thu, 07 November 2024

President-elect Trump is expected to prioritise an Israel-centric security agenda, maintain military backing for Israel while reducing direct US military presence, and promote de-escalation in the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Renewed efforts to broker Saudi-Israel normalisation would be central to his Middle East policy, though complicated by regional rivalries and Saudi Arabia’s balancing of interests with China and Russia. Meanwhile, US sanctions on Iran would remain stringent despite attempts by Iran’s leadership to negotiate relief.


MONTHLY INSIGHT - OCTOBER 2024

Wed, 30 October 2024

Kazan 2024 was no Bretton Woods 1944… A lack of consensus among BRICS members thwarted ambitions to rival the dominance of the US dollar in global trade transactions. Despite new local currency initiatives, the BRICS New Development Bank still trails the World Bank and IMF. Yet, the launch of local currency payments and clearance systems should enhance trade and investment flows among emerging and frontier markets, while stabilising their forex positions. No wonder that dozens of Global South states are queuing to join the bloc. In this Monthly Insight, we unlock a popular feature on the looming African domestic debt crisis, and we assess the outlook of two new BRICS partner countries – Uzbekistan and Uganda. We also explain why oil giant Saudi Arabia has not joined the club yet…


SPECIAL REPORT: AFRICAN DOMESTIC BORROWING SURGES AMID GLOBAL MARKET CONSTRAINTS

Thu, 17 October 2024

The upcoming IMF and World Bank annual meetings should focus on Africa's deepening debt challenges, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable fiscal solutions. African governments have increasingly relied on domestic debt amid constrained access to international capital markets, driven by low credit ratings and rising debt sustainability risks. Governments are turning to trade finance solutions and concessional loans to bridge budget gaps and finance infrastructure. Despite some innovative strategies like climate bonds and bilateral trade agreements, debt servicing remains a notable strain, forcing countries to cut spending on essential services and infrastructure.


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IN THE NEWS

...
Houthis Limit Red Sea Attacks Amid Gaza Cease-Fire

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni comments on the security dynamics in the Red Sea.

View the original here
...
Zambia’s copper sector set for shake-up as government expands role in metals trading

Thursday, 16 January 2025

Africa Analyst Zaynab Hoosen comments on Zambia's launch of a metals trading company in partnership with commodity trader Mercuria.

View the original here
...
Post-Assad, Could Qatar-Turkey Gas Pipeline Be Revived?

Tuesday, 17 December 2024

Head of Risk Forecasting Bilal Bassiouni comments on Middle East energy dynamics

View the original here

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